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After the death of Pope Francis, could the next pope be Spanish? These are the possible candidates

With three Spanish cardinals eligible to vote, speculation grows over the country’s influence in the upcoming conclave

As the Catholic Church begins the solemn process of choosing a successor to Pope Francis, who has died this Monday April 21 in the Vatican, attention in Spain is turning to the College of Cardinals, and in particular to whether the next pope could come from Spain.

With three Spanish cardinals eligible to participate in the conclave, the possibility of a Spanish pontiff to replace Pope Francis, the first Latin American Pope, is – while far from certain – not unthinkable.

Roughly 52% of Spain’s population identifies as Catholic, making it the country’s largest religious group. However, only a fraction of these individuals actively practise the faith, and the percentage has been in steady decline over recent decades.

Despite this trend, Spain continues to hold cultural and historical importance within Catholicism, and its clergy still plays a significant role in the global Church.

The conclave: How the next pope is chosen

Following the death of a pope, a highly structured process is triggered to elect his successor. The conclave, held behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel, involves the College of Cardinals (those under the age of 80) casting secret ballots until a candidate achieves a two-thirds majority.

The exact number of eligible cardinal electors currently stands at 140, with 110 of them appointed by Pope Francis during his 12-year pontificate.

Before the conclave begins, the cardinals will gather in general congregations to reflect on the state of the Church and discuss the qualities they seek in the next pontiff.

Once the voting starts, ballot papers are burned after each round, with black smoke signalling an inconclusive vote and white smoke indicating that a new pope has been chosen.

Spanish contenders in the running

Spain has three voting cardinals who, in theory, could themselves be elected pope.

Juan José Omella (above, left): Archbishop of Barcelona, widely respected for his pastoral approach and social engagement.
José Cobo Cano (above, centre): Archbishop of Madrid, relatively young and has shown strong alignment with many of Pope Francis’ values.
Ángel Fernández Artime (above, right): Rector Major of the Salesians, brings a global perspective through his leadership of the international religious congregation.

Though it is rare for cardinals to openly campaign for the papacy, names inevitably circulate in speculation. Spanish cardinals are not usually seen among the top contenders, but the presence of these three figures, each with notable pastoral or organisational experience, adds weight to Spain’s influence in this pivotal moment.

Two other Spanish cardinals, Carlos Osoro and Antonio Cañizares, will soon turn 80, in May and October respectively, and will lose their voting rights under Vatican rules at the end of this year. While the latest start date for the conclave to choose the next pope is Sunday May 11, just five days before Osoro’s birthday, it is highly unlikely that either man will be in the running for the top seat.

Other international names likely to throw their zucchetto into the ring to be the next pope include Parolin, Zuppi, Burke, Tagle and Sarah, but there are often surprises in the conclave process.

It is important to note that nationality alone is rarely the decisive factor in the selection of a pope. The conclave traditionally seeks a leader who can unite the global Church, respond to contemporary challenges and inspire the faithful worldwide.

While a Spanish pope is not impossible, the decision will likely reflect a broader set of considerations, including theological vision, diplomatic skill and pastoral credibility.

Still, with the majority of current electors having been appointed by Pope Francis, the next pope is expected to share at least some of his predecessor’s reformist and pastoral outlook, an outlook that several Spanish cardinals are well-positioned to embody.

The death of Pope Francis closes a chapter marked by humility, reform and dialogue. As the Church prepares for a new phase, speculation around potential successors reflects both the diversity and complexity of today’s Catholic world.

Whether or not a Spaniard emerges as the new pope will be decided in the coming weeks.

Image: Vatican and Salesianos Don Bosco

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