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ARCHIVED - Is this the start of the end of the sixth wave in Spain?
The seven-day figure in Spain has dropped 76 points in recent days
Usually, New Year’s Eve is filled with resolutions to improve health and wellbeing in the twelve months to come, but it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine that many people this festive season were simply wishing for an end to the coronavirus pandemic. And with health experts predicting that we may be on the cusp of the peak of the sixth wave, another reliable indicator is also giving rise to renewed hope in Spain.
The cumulative incidence over the last seven days, which reflects the number of people infected in a week out of 100,000 inhabitants, began to decline on Friday January 7, after a slowdown in its growth rate in recent days. From Monday to Tuesday it barely increased by 17 points, on Wednesday, 16.8, and now it has dropped 76; while in the preceding days it had risen to 170 in just 24 hours. This trend may be a sign that the peak of the sixth wave is getting closer and closer.
The 14-day cumulative incidence rate is the one which scientist give the most credence, but the 7-day indicator pinpointed a shift in the evolution of the pandemic far earlier during the third and fifth waves.
However, the experts are slow to predict when a noticeable change will be observed.
“We all hope that during January, sooner rather than later, but we are not yet in a position to specify when,” explained the president of the Spanish Epidemiology Society, Oscar Zurriaga.
On the other hand, the aftermath of the Christmas and New Year festivities has still not been fully realised, and it could take several more weeks of see-sawing figures before the numbers balance out.
In addition, children are returning to school this week and many adults are back in the office, which could result in yet another spike in the coming days.
Faced with all these uncertainties, Mr Zurriaga has cautioned that, “In epidemiology, making predictions is not risky, it is useless.”
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