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Date Published: 11/01/2023
ARCHIVED - Could Spain see riots and an assault on its government buildings like Brazil this election year?
Experts in international politics say the situation in the two countries is not comparable, although a dangerous precedent has been set
On January 8, 2023, almost exactly one year on from the assault on Washington’s Capitol building by Trump supporters, there were riots by supporters of the ousted President Bolsonaro on the country’s democratic institutions.
As Spain enters an election year, with local elections slated for May and a general election in November, some are wondering whether a similar incident could take place here.
While the world of Spanish politics is certainly very heated and divided, with opposition parties accusing the incumbent socialist government of (among other things) allegedly trying to fix the country’s Constitutional Court in their favour, changing the laws for treason, sexual assault and transgender rights, and spending too much public money on keeping the cost of living down, which they say will cripple the economy in the future.
Having held power since 2018, the PSOE-Podemos left-wing coalition currently in government in Spain could see it’s days numbered with a possible swing to the right at the next elections, with early polls indicating a likely win for a coalition government formed of the centre-right PP and the far-right Vox parties.
However, while it may seem farfetched right now, could there be riots and a violent attack on democracy in Spain by whichever party ends up losing in the elections, as happened in Brazil and the US? If the left are voted out of power, could an organised group of leftist radicals storm Spain’s government building in Madrid in an attempt to wrest back control? Or, if the socialists continue for another term, could some disgruntled right-wing extremists try to stage a coup?
What is the danger of Spain seeing an assault of congress similar to Brazil?
Spain is no stranger to a growing gap between the different currents of political thought, and polarisation seems to be on the rise. However, experts in international politics say that the situation in Spain is not comparable to Brazil.
According to a recent report by the communications consultancy Llorente y Cuenta (LLYC), Brazil is the country with the highest degree of polarisation in terms of the conversation that takes place on social networks, especially on issues related to racism and freedom of expression. In Latin America as a whole, says the study, polarisation has risen by 39% since 2017.
“We are in an election year and it is normal that there is a temptation to apply everything into our own lands, but you have to be careful. We are still a long way from something similar happening in Spain, but the lukewarmness with which certain political parties have reacted in an election year as intense as this one is worrying,” Carlos Malamud, senior researcher for Latin America at the Elcano Royal Institute, told El Periódico de España, part of the Prensa Ibérica group.
“It’s hard to think about the possibility of that happening in our country, and on that scale, but we are in an era where social media spreads ideas very quickly. If you look at the first reactions to what has happened in the PP and PSOE circles, it seems like two different realities,” he said, referring to the fact that the PP were slow to criticise the attacks in Brazil.
How would an assault like the one in Brazil be punished in Spain?
In fact, in response to a comment by the Spanish President, Pedro Sánchez, condemning the assault, the secretary general of the PP, Cuca Gamarra, tweeted on Sunday night that such an attack in Spain would now be charged as “a simple public disorder”.
Contigo, en España esto ahora es un simple desorden público… https://t.co/O75XlbB1kL
— Cuca Gamarra (@cucagamarra) January 8, 2023
However, experts in Constitutional and Criminal Law disagree, as they consider that the now defunct crime of sedition would never have covered the crimes committed in Brazil, and that the offences still contemplated in the Spanish Criminal Code would be those applicable to events of this type.
Jacobo Dopico, Professor of Criminal Law at the Carlos III University, explains that all democratic states, including Spain, have a “red line” in their criminal codes if there are “coercive invasions of constitutional bodies, such as Parliament or the Government”, and that as such “an attack on Parliament is obviously not the same as street disorder”.
These crimes against the Constitution, both in Spain and in neighbouring countries, include offences of varying gravity, which can range from the invasion of Parliament (which article 495 of the Penal Code punishes with imprisonment of up to five years) to attempts to coerce or dissolve it (which in Spain are punished as rebellion, provided for in article 472 of the Penal Code).
Violence is not a popular option in Spain
“In Spain there would be no point in trying to import a modus operandi like the one seen in Brazil. There may be very small groups that would be willing to do so, but the population, in general, is not open to taking the path of violence,” concludes Mariano Jabonero, Secretary General of the Organisation of Ibero-American States (OEI), who points out that it would rather provoke “rejection” among the vast majority of voters, as has happened in the South American country.
That said, last year, shortly after the US attack on Capitol Hill, there was a smaller scale, local storming of a Town Hall building in the Spanish municipality of Lorca, in the Region of Murcia, by a group of pig farmers displeased with a decision to limit their businesses. Said attack was apparently orchestrated by right-wing groups associated with Vox.
So the country is not without precedent for such episodes, although it would be foolish to equate the situation in Brazil and the US with Spain. The circumstances are totally different, and it’s highly unlikely there will be a large, popular movement in favour of violence in the country.
Image 1: New Aumata
Image 2: Javier Sánchez Serna/Twitter
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