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The ancient weather secret that's predicting a sunny February and snow for Holy Week in Spain
Famous teen forecaster Jorge Rey has used the centuries-old cabañuelas method to predict what's coming in Spain this spring
If you haven't come across Jorge Rey before, he's a young meteorologist from Burgos who became something of a media sensation after using an ancient traditional forecasting method called the cabañuelas to predict Storm Filomena before it hit.
The cabañuelas is a centuries-old technique, deeply rooted in Spanish rural tradition, that uses observations from the first days of the year to forecast the weather for the months ahead.
It's the kind of folk wisdom that mainstream meteorology tends to dismiss, but young Jorge has built a serious following by combining it with more conventional forecasting, and his predictions have a habit of being scarily accurate.
A calm end to February
To set the scene for his latest forecast, Jorge points to an old Spanish saying, particularly well known in Valencia and Catalonia, that links Candlemas Day on February 2 to what follows. If the day is clear and sunny, winter has another 40 days to run. If it rains or snows, the cold is on its way out.
Based on that, and on his broader reading of the coming weeks, Jorge is confident that what remians of February should be “pretty calm,” with a high-pressure system helping to settle conditions from around the middle of the month onwards.
It's worth noting that Spain has already had a punishing start to the year, working its way through three quarters of the storm name alphabet thanks to a relentless run of high-impact weather.
A warm but unsettled March
March, according to Jorge, should start with a noticeable rise in temperatures, although sadly this won’t last. Atlantic fronts will keep rolling in throughout much of the month, bringing rain to western parts of Spain at the end of the first week.
There's a brief warm and settled spell expected around the 12th and 13th, but new storms are forecast for the southwest between the 16th and 17th, with Extremadura, Huelva, Sevilla and Cádiz likely to feel it most.
A white Holy Week?
It's the second half of March and the start of April where things get really interesting. Jorge is warning of a possible sharp change in the weather pattern, with cold polar air pushing in and the potential for significant snowfall.
For those planning around Holy Week, his forecast is cautious, pointing to a difficult picture for the north and central parts of the country, with a real risk of both rain and snow.
Whether the anticyclone that is expected to shape such a peaceful end to February can hold on long enough to save Easter remains, for now, very much to be seen.
For more weather news go to our Weather & Climate page or follow the Spain Weather Watch Facebook group for regular updates
Image: Jorge Ray
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